A population expert predicts that the implications of an aging New Zealand population will be clearer from next year, as the Baby Boomer generation enters retirement.
Professor Natalie Jackson, director of the centre for population studies at the University of Waikato, says analysts have seen the problems of an aging population on the horizon for some time.
“At a societal level this is a huge issue with enormous implications. Over the next 10 to 15 years there’ll be a demographically tight job market, and businesses will have to compete for young people and even for older workers,” explained Prof Jackson.
Newly released Statistics New Zealand figures predict couples without children will overtake two-parent families as the most common household formation by next year.
The increasing prevalence of couple-without-children families was mainly due to the large number of people born during the 1950s to the early 1970s reaching older ages. Most of these couples have adult children who have left the parental home.
However, Prof Jackson says, many couples are choosing not to have children.
Dr Lynne Baab from the department of theology and religion at the University of Otago hopes that couples who stay childless are not judged by the church. She says it is often fears about the future rather than selfishness that guides the decision.
“We need to be challenging people whether they have children or don’t have children to serve God with the time that they do have, and with the choices that they’ve made with their lives,” she said. “There are opportunities locally and internationally for serving that people without children might have.” Dr Baab cited the ministry of life-long single Bible teacher John Stott, as an excellent role model for those without children. She says, “There is more to marriage than, “go forth and multiply”.
“There are a lot of commands in the Bible, and we need a holistic view to see where God is guiding people.”
National Family and Household Projections show the number of household will increase from an estimated 1.17 million in 2006 to 1.46 million in 2031. Couples without children would account for the majority of the growth, up from 468,000 in 2006 to 721,000 in 2031.
The figures also showed the number of households would increase faster than the population would grow, with household growth rate projected to increase by an average of 1.2 percent compared with the population growth rate at an average of 0.8 percent.
The number of households was expected to reach 2.09 million by 2031, an increase of about 536,000 from June 2006.
